Adani Ports and SEZ 4QFY25 Result Final Take by Equirus Securities: Healthy growth prospects – maintain LONG
Adani Ports & SEZ (ADSEZ) reported a largely in-line 4QFY25, with revenues of ~Rs 84.9bn (EE: ~Rs 82.8bn), EBITDA of ~Rs 50.1bn (EE: ~Rs 50.4bn), and recurring PAT of ~Rs 30.8bn (EE: ~Rs 30.2bn).
Port volumes reached ~117.8MMT, up 8.4% yoy, while port revenues grew 20.9% yoy to ~Rs 46.1bn. EBITDA margins for the ports segment stood at 71.8% compared to 69.7%/72.7% during 4QFY24/3QFY25.
For FY26, management has guided to cargo volumes of 505MMT-515MMT, with containers as the primary growth driver, followed by dry and liquid cargo.
ADSEZ has been on an acquisition spree and continues to outperform the industry over the last few years. Sticky cargo, new port acquisitions, and presence across the value chain will ensure continued growth momentum.
The stock is currently trading at a 23.5x/20.4x FY26E/FY27E P/E and a 15.6x/13.7x EV/EBITDA. Maintain LONG with a SOTP-based Sep’26 TP of Rs 1,586 set at a one-year forward EV/EBITDA of 15x.
Karan Adani, Managing Director, Adani Ports
FY26 cargo volume guidance at 505-515MMT: ADSEZ guided for FY26 cargo volumes of 505-515MMT, implying ~12.2% growth over FY25. With healthy volume growth, management expects FY26 revenues/EBITDA of Rs 360-380bn/Rs 210-220bn. Further, ADSEZ has outlined a capex plan of ~Rs 120bn for FY26, majorly towards domestic ports (~Rs 60bn) followed by international ports and the logistics segment (~Rs 20bn each).
Strengthening integrated logistics platform: In FY25, ADSEZ significantly expanded its integrated logistics infrastructure to drive scale and efficiency. Adani Logistics achieved ~84% yoy revenue growth in 4QFY25, with EBITDA margins of 18%. The company launched its first block train and increased its total rake count to 132. It now operates 12 multimodal logistics parks (MMLPs) and has scaled up warehousing capacity to 3.1m sq. ft. Agri silo capacity rose to 1.2MMT, with a target of 4MMT, alongside steady growth in its trucking operations.
Sustained market share gains: In FY25, containers accounted for 42% of total cargo volume (vs. 37% in FY24), lifting ADSEZ’s all-India cargo and container market shares to 27% (vs 26.5%) and 45.5% (vs 44%), respectively. Further, with ongoing expansion, we expect ADSEZ’s volume to grow at 1.5-2x of India’s cargo volume over the medium term.
